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美媒:中国有大量廉价劳动力优势,为什么还痴迷于AI试图超越美国

关键词:人工智能 印度尼西亚 教育   发布时间:2019-07-01 08:00:01

Why is China so obsessed with AI (artificial intelligence) that it’s trying to surpass the US in AI technology? Although, China has an advantage due to its abundant cheap labor and human workforce.

中国有大量的廉价劳动力优势,为什么还如此痴迷于AI试图超越美国?

美媒:中国有大量廉价劳动力优势,为什么还痴迷于AI试图超越美国

外国网友评论翻译:

Hongda Jiang

Answered 7h ago

Multiple answers (including that of Mr. Denlinger) have already addressed the strategic importance of AI, seems like the erroneous assumptions about “abundant cheap labor” has not been thoroughly addressed so far.

Reliance on cheap labor is precisely what the PRC must avoid to advance its next stage of development, for a few reasons.

Others have cheaper labor. Plenty of other countries ALREADY have cheaper labor costs than the PRC - Indonesia, India, Vietnam, just to name a few. The PRC’s current advantage is NOT just cheap labor, but a combination of flexibility, scale, excellent infrastructure, & a vast local market that keeps TOTAL costs of production down.

China’s workforce is shrinking. China’s population growth phase has pretty much ended. China’s population will start to shrink within 10 years, and it’s total workforce is already shrinking due to aging.

China must move up the value chain. EVEN IF the PRC still had “abundant cheap labor”, that advantage would shrink continuously as automation becomes cheaper. Therefore, in order to continue growing & maintaining competitiveness, the PRC would need to upgrade its industries in any case.

很多答案都说明了AI的战略重要性,但是“大量的廉价劳动力”这个错误的假设还没有得到解答。

要想进一步发展,中国就必须避免依赖廉价劳动力,原因如下。

其他国家拥有更加廉价的劳动力。好多其他国家的劳动力成本已经比中国低,比如印尼,印度,越南等等。中国目前的优势不是廉价劳动力,而是弹性,规模,极好的基建以及巨大的本土市场,所以总的生产成本保持在低位。

中国劳动力在减少。中国的人口增长阶段基本已经结束。十年内中国人口将开始下降,而由于老龄化总的劳动力数量已经下降。

中国必须往价值链上端攀爬。即使中国依然拥有大量的廉价劳动力,随着自动化变得廉价,这个优势也会持续减小。因此,为了继续增长和保持竞争力,中国必须升级自己的产业。

Paul Denlinger, Worked with several startups; sometime product man agement guy, manager

Answered 12h ago. Upvoted by Jason L, AI researcher.

Because everything about Al plays to China s strengths and advantages:

AI neural networks require huge amounts of data the more the better. China has about 900 million mobile phone users who are creating huge amoun ts of data on a daily basis. As AI develops and is pushed out to other sectors, the data becomes more valuable than the technology. Since China has four times the population of the US, China has a huge inn ate advan tage which the US cannot match;

AI requires a large number of data scien tsts to create algorithms, China can supply those.

AI will cause large social disruptions and unemployment as it is applied in di fferent fields, it is better to get ahead of these chang es so that the sodety can be educated and prepared for them;

Al gravita tes towards a winner-takes-all business model, which will add to the ab ove-mentioned disruption The government and party need to prep are for this.

The nation and society which commands Al will become the next superpower. The president of Russia, Vladmir Putin,said so.

因为AI可以加强中国的实力和优势:

AI 神经网络要求大量的数据;越多越好。中国有9亿手机用户,毎天产生了大量的数据。随着AI发展并推向其他部门,数据就会比技术更加有价值。因为中国人口是美国四倍,所以中国有固有的优势,这是美国无法媲美的。

AI要大量的数据科学家创造算法,而中国可以提供。

随着在不同领域的应用,AI引发巨大的社会破坏和失业;最好赶在这些变化之前,这样社会オ可以接受教育并做好准备;AI倾向于贏家通吃的商业模式,这将加剧上诉的破坏。政府和党需要为此做好准备。

掌握AI的国家和社会将成为下ー个超级强国。俄罗斯总统普京这么说的。

Luc De Mestre, PhD Computer Science, Université De Caen Basse-Normandie (2006)

Answered Mar 12

Everybody know that AI is the next big thing. Because AI unlock the automation of millions of jobs.

Up to 375 million jobs may be automated by 2030. 375 million jobs may be automated by 2030, study suggests

More than 500 millions of jobs worldwide will be automatized in the next 20 or 30 years.

大家都知道AI是下一颗重磅炸弹。因为AI将让工作变成自动化。

到2030年,或许会有3.75亿个就业岗位变成自动化。未来20到30年将有超过5亿个工作自动化。

Konstantinos Konstantinides, EE, Ph.D.

Answered Mar 12

The question shows a misunderstanding of what AI is about. It is not about creating human robots to replace humans. AI is a whole family of tools to improve the process of making decisions. For example, IBM’s “Watson” is being used to scan medical literature and then help doctors decide on the best treatment for cancer patients. AI can help us make better and more efficient processors, better cars, more energy-efficient homes, etc. That’s why it is important to all countries, regardless of the availability of cheap work force. By the way, that work force is getting more expensive every day.

这个问题表明了对AI的误解。它不是关乎创造人类机器人去替代人类。AI是一整个工具包以提高决策过程。比如,IBM的 watson被用来扫描医学文献,帮助医生决定最好的癌症治疗方案。AI可以帮助我们制造更好更高效的处理器,更好的车,更加能源高效的房屋等等。所以对每个国家都很重要,而不论你是不是有廉价劳动力。顺便说一下,劳动力成本越来越高了。

Anonymous

Answered Mar 20

That is a wrong way of thinking.

In some industries, Al is already so good such that Al is already cheap er than cheap human laborers Who can say that we won t see the same in other industries?

Moreover, even in some industries where China s cheap human laborers are still more competitive than AI,who can say that the cost of human laborers in Chin a will remain cheap If the cost of workers in China rose but China had no Al capability at that time, then Chinese economy would be adversely affected.

Last but not least, It s not always a binary decision between human and Al . In many cases, the best result is obtained by combining them. Therefore, Al capability is always b eneficial in this case.

你这么想就错了。在某些行业,AI的表现很好,以至于成本比廉价劳动力还低。那么其他行业是不是也可能这样呢。

此外,虽然中国某些行业的劳动力成本比Al 低,但是中国的劳动力成本会一直这么低吗?如果中国劳动力成本上升而那时中国没有自己的Al 技术,那么中国经济肯定受到消极影响。

最后,这并不总是人类和A之间的二元决定。很多情况下,结合二者才能得到最好的结果。因此,发展AI总是有好处的。

Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT

Answered Mon

Because the Chinese government has looked a few years in the future. Chinese labour is no longer cheap, and it’s about to disappear.

The Chinese population is about to get very old, very quickly. China’s economy in the past was helped by lots of young people ready to get factory jobs. But because of the one child policy, that source of labour is fast disappearing.

So in order to make sure that the Chinese economy keeps running once everyone gets old, the government is encouraging a lot of development of AI and robots as well as moving the factories to Africa and Southeast Asia.

因为中国政府看到了未来。中国劳动力不再廉价,而且即将消失。

中国人口将变得老龄化。中国以前的经济发展是因为年轻人去工厂里上班。但是因为一胎政策,劳动力来源在快速消失。

所以为了确保中国经济继续运行,政府必须鼓励AI和机器人的发展,并且将工厂搬到非洲和东南亚。

分享 2019-07-01 08:00:01

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